On Wednesday evening, the Director of the FBI, James Comey learned of his termination while meeting with agents at the Los Angeles field office. Initially, he thought it was a prank but was pulled into an office by his staff to be told that the President had signed a letter relieving him of his position.

The President cites recommendations from the Attorney General and the Deputy Attorney General as the reasoning for the termination. Reading into those letters a bit we see that the Deputy Attorney General cites the Director’s mishandling of the Clinton Investigation as the primary reason for the suggested termination.

President Trump then seems to digress and discuss how former-Director Comey has told him on three occasions that he isn’t being investigated. Considering the significant controversy surrounding the now former Director, numerous theories have arisen surrounding the “real” reason for the termination. So lets take a look at the facts and then dive into the theories:

The Timeline

  • July 5th: FBI Director Comey condemns Secretary Clinton’s use of the email server, but says that no charges will be pressed. The left was angry that the Director condemned her for something he wasn’t going to pursue charges on. The right was angry that he didn’t pursue charges.
  • October 28th: (11 days before the Presidential election): Breaking protocol, the Director tells Congress that they have found more emails and will be investigating further. A few days later he says that nothing new was found. Many on the left criticize the Director for throwing the election in favor of President Trump
  • January 18th: After months of praising how the Director handled the investigation of Secretary Clinton’s emails, the President-elect told Director Comey that he planned to keep him in his position.
  • March 2nd: Attorney General Sessions recuses himself from investigations related to Russian Intelligence and the Trump Campaign
  • March 20th: Director Comey confirms to the House Intelligence Committee that there is an active investigation between Russian Intelligence and the Trump Campaign.
  • April 25th: In a 94-6 vote, the Senate confirms Rod Rosenstein as Deputy Attorney General.
  • May 2nd: The President tweets: “FBI Director Comey was the best thing that ever happened to Hillary Clinton in that he gave her a free pass for many bad deeds!… “
  • May 3rd: Director Comey testifies to the Senate Judiciary Committee regarding the investigation into Secretary Clinton’s email server. During his testimony he defends his actions but says it makes him “mildly nauseous” to think that he affected the election.
  • May 4th-9th: Over the following week, news outlets and eventually the FBI refute/correct some of the claims that the Director made during his testimony
  • Morning of May 9th: Federal Prosecutors issue grand jury subpoenas as apart of the FBI investigation.
  • Afternoon/Evening of May 9th: The Attorney General and the newly appointed Deputy Attorney General send letters to the President suggesting that the Director be removed. Later that day, the Director is fired by the President.

The Theories

The President was waiting for the Deputy Attorney General to be confirmed

Byron York at the Washington Examiner makes a compelling argument that the President wanted to wait until the Deputy Attorney General had been confirmed. According to York, The Director of the FBI reports to the DAG, who reports to the AG. I actually was unable to find anything to support the claim that the Director reports to the DAG. According to the Justice Department’s website, it would seem that the Director reports directly to the Attorney General.

Now considering that the AG had recently recused himself from any investigations involving the Trump Campaign and Russian intelligence, it would have been mildly suspicious for him to solely suggesting firing the man leading up those investigations. So waiting until the DAG confirmation may have given more credibility to the termination.

President Trump was frustrated with the Director

Ben Shapiro at the Daily Wire postulates that the President was frustrated with Director’s inability to shutdown the Russian narrative. He lays out a case for the President getting upset about the ongoing Russian investigation and how it was plaguing his Presidency. So in true President Trump fashion, he made an off the cuff decision to get rid of him.

The Cover-up

Numerous outlets have pursued this theory, so I won’t link to any single one, but the main idea suggests that the current President is going the way of President Nixon. Days before his termination, Director Comey had requested additional resources and funds to continue the investigation into the Trump Campaign. Then early on the day of his termination, Federal Prosecutors issue subpoenas for the investigation.

Most of these theories suggest that the President is caught up in his own Watergate and he was attempting to get rid of the man closest to finding the truth in the investigation.

A Mixture of the above

Personally, I think the reality lies somewhere in between.

The Russia investigation has been a constant thorn in the side to the President since even before the election took place. Whether there was any collusion with Russian Intelligence or not, the President seems to think that making the investigation disappear is the best strategy. Both the Press Secretary, his Deputy and numerous other surrogates have said over and over that the Russia claims are entirely false and that no investigation is needed.

On top of that, the President’s attitude toward the Director dramatically changed from the moment that he confirmed there was an FBI investigation into the Trump Campaign. This obviously continued the narrative that he so badly wanted to be rid of and it angered him.  Further confirming this, the President spends a third of the termination letter describing how the Director told him that he wasn’t being investigated. Then the Director goes and says that it makes him “mildly nauseous” to think that he influenced the election. To the President, anything that suggests that he wasn’t the only reason for the victory is a slap in the face.

The White House has suggested that the Deputy Attorney General played a role in the termination, but this seems to entirely political hand waving. His suggestion for the termination hinges almost entirely on the way he handled the investigation into Secretary Clinton, which the President applauded the Director for. Further, many find it unlikely that the President would take personnel advice from someone he barely knows.

While I don’t think that the DAG confirmation had any real influence on the decision, I think it did give the President good cover for the termination. He was confirmed almost unanimously by the Senate and could be considered bipartisan enough to help with the decision.  Considering many blame former-Director Comey for the Clinton loss in November, I think that the President expected some on the left to be happy with the termination. This has turned out to be extremely untrue and has only added more fuel to the Russia fire that the President was attempting to put out.

Overall I think that this termination was just another major organizational and optical mistake made by the White House. After successfully passing the a healthcare bill through the House, the President is once again thrown into a controversy of his own making. We just have to wait and see if this the wave that will finally sink the ship or just another bump on the Trump Presidency.